The Sky is Falling
by
Harold Richman
Every generation has produced a Chicken Little forecasting doom and gloom for the human race. The most famous of these alarmists was Thomas Matthus, the English economist. He published a book in 1798 called An Essay on the Principle of Population in which he predicted disaster for mankind. He based his forecast on the fact that the world population was increasing geometrically, whereas the food supply was only increasing arithmetically. Later in life he rescinded his forecast. In a recent lecture, Jim Carr reported that scientific studies are now predicting that the world population will stabilize in about 50 years. There is no shortage of food at the present time as indicated by the very low commodity prices. Countries such as India and China, which at one time were major importers of food, have now become exporters of food. Chicken Little was wrong again.
In the 1970's the world was faced with a serious oil crisis due to a restriction of supply by the OPEC countries. I can recall Sheik Yamani, the Saudi Arabian Oil Minister, lecturing the West that they must learn to reduce the use of oil as the supply would run out within 25 years. He also predicted that oil would be selling for $75 a barrel. The world now has larger reserves than at any time in the past. Deep sea drilling has been perfected so that vast areas of the world can now be explored as a source of oil. (About 60% of the earth is covered with water.) A new drilling method on land, called horizontal drilling, has also been perfected. From one location an oil well can be drilled down vertically and then the drill can be turned horizontally, thus tapping a much larger area more efficiently. Fifty years ago it was believed that the huge tar sands deposits could never be commercially developed. Several billion dollars are now being spent to expand the tar sands extraction facilities, thus becoming a major source of oil. Chicken Little was wrong again.
About 20 years ago satellites started to measure the ozone layer and found that there was a hole in the layer over the Antarctic. The ozone layer is considered to be a shield, reducing the amount of ultraviolet rays reaching the earth. After much study it was determined that a gas used in refrigeration called CFC's (chlorofluorocarbons) was the culprit. An international conference was held in Montreal resulting in the Montreal Protocol. There are now 168 countries that have agreed to stop producing this particular refrigerant even though the cost will run into the billions. However, no evidence has been found that the hole in the ozone layer has been reduced. Recently, in a discussion with a friend of mine who is a medical doctor, he mentioned the fact that there are two types of ultraviolet radiation: UV-A and UV-B. Scientific studies have found that skin cancer is caused by the UV-A rays and not by the UV-B rays. The ozone layer absorbs only the UV-B rays. So it appears that the billions of dollars being spent on suntan lotion, which shields you from the UV-B rays, does not protect you from the possibility of getting skin cancer. Chicken Little was wrong again.
The latest cause being promulgated by the alarmists is Global Warming. The culprit this time is carbon dioxide. This is one of the greenhouse gases that prevents heat from being radiated back out of the atmosphere, causing the earth's temperature to increase. They never mention the fact that ordinary water vapor is a much larger component of greenhouse gases than carbon dioxide. Even bovine flatulence is thought to produce more of an effect than the carbon dioxide produced by burning gasoline in motor vehicles. One of the ways the American government has decided to reduce the amount of CO2 produced by automobiles is to increase the average miles per gallon that the automobiles must attain. The average is based on all the automobiles each manufacturer produces. One method manufacturers have adopted is to produce some electric vehicles which do not use any gas at all. This would therefore help to increase the average miles per gallon of their entire fleet. It is only recently that someone pointed out that the electricity needed to charge the battery of an electric car was probably being produced by coal-fired generators which are the worst polluters in the country.
Contrary to what Dr. Kaye reported in his article in the July issue of the Manitoba Naturalist Bulletin, Global Warming has not been proven by any scientific study. The alarmist starts with the assumption that Global Warming is a proven fact, but the prediction is based only on computer models which are not sufficiently developed to be relied upon. For instance, our own weatherman has a hard time predicting the weather two days in advance. So how can it be possible to predict Global Warming which would take about a hundred years to produce the effects they are predicting?
My wife, Laura, has undertaken her own scientific investigation of Global Warming, and I am reporting the results for the first time. For the last seven years we've been spending our winters in Sun City West near Phoenix, Arizona. Laura plays golf four or five times a week. During the coldest part of the winter, December, January and February, she calls the pro shop to see if there is a frost delay. This past winter there have been more frost delays than at any time in the previous six years. She therefore has come to the conclusion that we are suffering from Global Cooling rather than from Global warming. Chicken Little was wrong again.
In conclusion, I would like to point out that the earth is four and a half billion years old. During that time there have been unbelievable changes. Complete continents have moved thousands of miles from their original locations. Galileo discovered marine fossils on top of the Alps, indicating that at one time these rocks were located on the ocean floor. There is evidence that, in the past, sea level was 300 feet below its present elevation. There is also evidence that the earth has gone through at least 10 ice ages, the last one ending only 10,000 years ago. One of the basic principles of geology is the Uniformitarian Principle which means that whatever processes have taken place in the past will take place in the future. Homo sapiens evolved one million years ago. Civilization within the last 5,000 years, and man's ability to alter his environment, have only become a factor in the last 100 years. It is therefore very unlikely that man can alter his environment in any significant way compared to geological changes which are taking place as in the past. I am not suggesting that we should not do our utmost to reduce pollution of the air, of the land, and of the water, but we should keep things in perspective and not be stampeded by the Chicken Little alarmists of the world.
References:
Ozone Layer
Ozonel Layer 1
Ozone Layer 2
Global Warming
Global Warming
